By Matthew Ridley | Monday, July 19, 2010

The World Development Movement (WDM), a group that claims to “tackle the root causes of world poverty”, today claimed that the spike in food prices in 2008 was entirely down to “bankers” and called for government regulation of the food industry in order to stabilise prices.

 But this theory, that greedy speculators have caused the food crisis, has many nails in its coffin by now. The Economist recently cited an OECD study that found speculators “not guilty” of causing the price rises in both food and oil. The fact that commodities without futures markets (apples, edible beans) also saw price rises during 2006-08 rather suggests that the sudden price fluctuations are best explained by good old-fashioned supply and demand.

Blogger Tim Worstall adds further evidence: he shows how speculators, by anticipating future supply or demand shocks and buying or selling accordingly, actually bring forward price changes and so give producers and consumers more time to adjust in preparation for the shocks. In this way, speculators can actually reduce price volatility.

WDM is right to claim that the “poorest people...suffered the most” in 2008. Yet their proposed cure, government regulation to stop food price volatility, is worse than the disease. The EU has already tried to stabilise food prices through their Common Agricultural Policy by setting "intervention prices" at which they would buy or sell to keep the price in a certain range. Predictably, under pressure from farmers’ lobby groups, they set prices too high and ended up with massive surpluses. These are then dumped on world markets, forcing down prices and destroying the livelihoods of millions of African farmers, while at the same time keeping prices unnecessarily high within the EU.

If WDM are really concerned for poor people, they should stop indulging in populist anti-market rhetoric and concentrate on the proven causes of high food prices – taxes, export bans and quotas, customs delays and red tape, the CAP, biofuel subsidies… the list goes on. 

By Matthew Ridley & Timothy Cox | Monday, July 19, 2010

The EU’s recent announcement that it intends to give member states the freedom to grow genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is an important step in the right direction. But it doesn’t go far enough. GMO imports still risk being blocked on unscientific and alarmist grounds, forcing the hand of many developing world producers who rely upon the lucrative EU export market. And the EU will continue to fund anti-GMO pressure groups, such as Friends of the Earth (FoE), whose regional groups lobby developing world governments for precautionary and highly-restrictive legislation. A fairer system would be full legalisation of GM crops and imports, where each farmer could decide whether to allow or ban GM crops on their farm and each consumer could decide whether to allow or ban GM foods crops on their plate.
 
GM crops have the potential to revolutionise farming in the developing world. But regardless of their perceived risks and benefits, the real issue here is one of freedom of choice. It seems as though the EU has thankfully realised that such a decision is best left to local administrations. But it must loosen its control over imports as well. Currently, the EU has only authorised 18 GMOs for import out of the many thousands of varieties available. The EU health commissioner has said that, despite the reforms, “the EU-wide authorisation system... remains fully in place”. In effect, developing world exporters of GMOs will continue to be blocked, despite the decision to grow these domestically being left to independent member states.

Furthermore, the EU is likely to continue funding advocacy groups, such as Friends of the Earth Europe (who received EUR 813,721 from the EU in 2009), who run high profile anti-GMO campaigns. Last year, the Nigerian branch of FoE attempted to block preliminary testing on GM disease-resistant cassava plants, leaving the EU open to allegations of lobbying by proxy.

The science behind GMOs will long continue to be debated, but one thing is clear. If GM crops grown in Europe are good enough for our consumers, then so should those grown in the developing world. Anything else amounts to brazen eco-protectionism and unfairly marginalises developing world producers. Let’s hope the EU is a bit braver in future.  

By Alec van Gelder | Monday, July 19, 2010

I was just on the Today Programme to discuss Andrew Mitchell's aid spending in India.  I was debating a representative from Save the Children, a charity that receives almost £80m from governments around the world—including DFID—in the form of “development contracts” to run aid-financed projects in many countries, including India.

My point is fairly straightforward: India has demonstrated the miraculous results that can happen when the government acknowledges it isn’t suited or capable of delivering “essential” public services or running industry.  Since reforms that began as early as 1986 and then much more rigorously in 1991, a huge number of Indians have plugged themselves into the global economy and lifted themselves out of poverty.  Along with the Chinese reforms, India’s liberalisation and modernisation have been the single most effective anti-poverty scheme the world has ever seen. 

Unfortunately, the reforms still have a long way to go and there is much work to do: India is still an abysmal 133 out of 183 countries in the World Bank’s Doing Business Index and, as these rankings are average, they illustrate how much of the country is still being governed by the old regime of barriers to enterprise and growth.  The states with the greatest number of poor people—Bihar and Orissa, specifically—are still riddled with the bad old ways of monolithic public services and hardly any private sector competition.  Bribes to get the most basic of services, meant to be provided for free by the government, are commonplace.  Contracts are unenforceable; courts process cases at a snail’s pace and the verdict is usually bought before-hand anyway; simple exchange requires paying off all the government-sponsored middle-men just to operate in a local marketplace.  These are the barriers that prevent the many millions of poor Indians from lifting themselves out of poverty.

Liberalising markets and unleashing Indian growth has demonstrated that it is the most effective way to promote growth and development.  It is against this backdrop that the discussion about how much aid the UK should spend in India must be placed.  The not-so insignificant £300 million we spend every year barely registers on Delhi’s public finances, but it does provide an excuse for the provincial governments that receive the greatest support from DFID to delay implementing badly-needed reform.  By failing to address these barriers, governments in these provinces are tacitly responsible for the poverty that forces some of the worst living conditions on earth.

Of far more importance than the £300 million in aid is the £400-plus million invested voluntarily by British businesses into India every year and the £3.88 billion in net assets held by British companies in India.  Those investments are geared to make returns, but they also go to improving infrastructure, transferring technology, and creating badly needed high-value jobs for India’s massive workforce.  Not surprisingly, the vast majority of these investments go to India’s most productive provinces—including Gujarat, Punjab, Andhra Praddesh and Karnataka—which are also the provinces that have most effectively implemented liberal-minded reform.  Kick-starting growth and tackling poverty in other, poorer provinces fundamentally requires the governments of those provinces to follow in the footsteps of their more successful neighbours.

These fiscally-challenging times must mean that it’s time to move beyond the facile discussion about development.  We don’t have to spend money we don’t have to help: a more effective way to promote growth, trade and development in India would be to provide better incentives for British businesses to establish even better commercial links across the rest of the country.

By Timothy Cox | Friday, July 16, 2010

Critical:

•    African investment: Japan is the latest to seize upon improving investment conditions in Africa. 

•    Learning from the mistakes of Live 8 and Band Aid.



Criticised:

•    Nigeria: how to make an abundant resource scarce. 

•    Yet more EU protectionism.

 

By Timothy Cox | Thursday, July 15, 2010

Our daily round-up of what other think-tanks and commentators are saying on the big issues:

The Wall Street Journal discusses the failure of the Live Aid model for development.

Scott Lincicome: US trade deficit widens- ignorant hysteria predictably ensues.

By Stuart Bramwell | Thursday, July 15, 2010

A recent report by McKinsey consultants lauded the future of African businesses claiming that “global business cannot afford to ignore the potential”. It seems Japan has taken note. Today Nippon Telegraph and Telephone has announced its decision to buy South Africa’s Dimension Data for $3.24bn. The deal is good news for both parties.

Japan will gain greater access to Southern African economies, many of which are benefiting hugely from telecoms liberalisation. And, South Africa will gain from the inflow of capital and expertise bringing much needed expansion and employment opportunities to the region.

Furthermore, this deal raises the hope that Japan, like India and China, could be beginning to realise the potential for capital investment in Africa.

By Timothy Cox | Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Our daily round-up of what other think-tanks and commentators are saying on the big issues:

Matt Ridley discusses the sexual habits of ideas.

The Volokh Conspiracy: From “Liberaltarianism” to Libertarian Centrism?

By Timothy Cox & Alec van Gelder | Wednesday, July 14, 2010

City A.M.’s Juliet Samuel reports on the appeal of African investments for funds looking to diversify their portfolios. Two groups, Sanlam Investment Management and Silver Street Capital, have recently established new African orientated funds. This source of financing should be welcomed with open arms by economies looking to give their entrepreneurs and business the capital and expertise they need to kick-start their operations. 

Unfortunately, as we have previous reported, many African governments continue to implement measures that make it difficult for foreign investors to operate. Weak property rights (both physical and intellectual),  excessive regulation and red tape, and arcane government bureaucracies increase the risks and cost for potential investors, forcing them to look elsewhere.  With investment groups increasingly seeking to hedge traditional investments with developing market based funds, African governments should seize upon this opportunity and open their doors for business.  

By Matthew Ridley | Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Just weeks after G20 leaders vowed to stave off protectionism, the EU is bowing to vested interests (yet again). Under pressure from the European Bicycle Manufacturers Association, the EU is threatening to extend an egregious 48.5% tariff on bicycles imported from China for a further five years. The EU should banish this egregious tariff, which has stood since 2005, and allow European consumers access to cheaper goods.
 
The justification for imposing this tax—that Chinese manufacturers were undercutting European producers—is perverse. Getting the same good at a lower price is a benefit, not a cost, to an economy and for the few European producers who may temporarily benefit, millions of consumers will lose out through higher prices. China has been able to utilise its extensive pool of cheap labour produce goods at well below the cost of more labour scarce economies. This comparative advantage is utilised by many European producers who outsource manufacturing to China and rely upon higher skilled labour- design, marketing, accountancy- within the EU. Import tariffs discriminate against these more cost-efficient producers too.

Unfortunately, EU legislators continue to appease lobbyists and vested interests at the expense of everyone else: last year EU erected no fewer than 89 new barriers to trade. Thankfully, Brussels has agreed to repeal a similar levy (34.5%) imposed upon Vietnamese bicycle imports, which has reportedly devastated the small, but important, Vietnamese bicycle manufacturing sector.  But this is too little, too late: If the EU is serious about free trade, protecting its consumers, and empowering its very capable producers, it should abolish all barriers to trade outright- including this self-harming tariff.

By Alec van Gelder | Wednesday, July 14, 2010

The Nigerian state-run oil company, Nigerian National Petroleum Company, is reported to be insolvent.  Plagued by government mismanagement, corruption and cronyism, the NNPC has excess liabilities of at least $5 billion and can’t afford its debts, in spite of Nigerian oil production being over two million barrels per day

Oil makes up 95% of Nigeria’s export revenue and 65% of government revenue, and yet in spite of this over-reliance the government continues to mismanage NNPC.  The over-reliance on oil has for decades prevented successive governments from implementing badly needed reforms to liberate the domestic economy and to diversify the economy.  Nigeria is currently ranked 125th in the world in terms of economies in which to do business, five rankings worse than its 2009 ranking, according to the World Bank Doing Business Report.

Nigeria, like the equally mismanaged Venezuela, prove that a bevy of natural resources is not an automatic ticket to wealth and prosperity.  Unless the rights to resources are well-defined and governments respect the contracts and foreign investment that makes exploitation sustainable, natural resources will become a curse that cripples growth and development.

By Alec van Gelder | Tuesday, July 13, 2010

You might be aware that today marks the fifth anniversary of Live 8 and the 25th anniversary of Live Aid.  Tony Blair has an op-ed in The Sun about the former and Bob Geldof has a lengthy piece in the same newspaper about the latter.  But after 25 years of celebrity activism and feel-good politicians wanting all of us to feel better about the many millions we've given in aid money to help the people of Ethiopia, the average Ethiopian isn't much better off.  That is a disgrace and a scandal. 

Take this 25th anniversary of Band-Aid (or, if you prefer, the 5th anniversary of Live8, the episode where we failed to learn from the past and proceeded to repeat its mistakes) and read this post about how there is still no effective means of appraising the projects that we continue to fund, in spite of many good efforts to do so.  This is a tragic reminder of the failures of the aid industry and a desperate plea to evaluate more effective ways of helping people in the world's poorest countries.

By Timothy Cox | Monday, July 12, 2010

Our daily round-up of what other think-tanks and commentators are saying on the big issues:

Aid Watch: The answer is 42! Why Development is not about solutions, it’s about problem-solving systems.

Cato: Bad medicine- a guide to the real costs and consequences of the new US health care law.