Too Many People?

The idea that global populations levels are too high and must therefore be stabilized has been embraced by policymakers and opinion formers all over the world, from the UN to Al Gore. But there is no evidence to support this.

This report from demographic expert Nicholas Eberstadt shows how global living standards have improved dramatically all over the world over the past century despite a near-quadrupling of human numbers – and they can continue to improve at current and future population levels.

The concept of ‘overcrowding’ is widely misunderstood, conjuring images of hungry children, unchecked disease, squalid living conditions and teeming slums. These conditions are more properly termed as ‘human poverty’. In reality, there is no link between population and density– wealthy Monaco, for example, has a population density forty times greater than Bangladesh.

Despite population levels having nearly quadrupled over the past 100 years, almost all of us are living longer, healthier and wealthier lives. Food production has steadily outstripped population growth, and practically all natural resources are more readily available than in the past.

Furthermore, government attempts to plan and reduce populations are based on a fundamental misreading of the situation. The 20th century’s unprecedented population growth was a result of people living longer due to better health, rather than any increase in fertility rates.

Nevertheless, proponents of population stabilization continue to demand that governments stabilise populations through family planning programmes. Voluntary family planning programmes have historically had an indiscernible impact on family rates. The evidence shows that family sizes in both rich and poor countries is determined by parental choice.